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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 1998
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BECOME RATHER UNCERTAIN ON INFRARED
IMAGERY...ALL RECENT FIXES INDICATE A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AVIATION MODEL 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS THAT THERE IS NOT
MUCH OF A RIDGE LEFT TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD DRIFT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

AN ABSENCE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION CONFIRMS THE CONTINUATI0N OF THE
WEAKENING PROCESS OVER COLD WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 24.7N 126.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N 127.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 25.3N 128.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     18/0000Z 25.5N 129.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     18/1200Z 25.7N 130.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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