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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 1998

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH GEORGETTE.  ALTHOUGH SOME LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
LINGER OVER THE AREA...THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY A LOW
CLOUD SWIRL.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 22 DEG C...A CONTINUED SPINDOWN OF THE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST.  GEORGETTE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A DAY
OR TWO BUT COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A LOW SOONER THAN THAT...AND
CARRIED IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER HIGH SEAS FORECASTS.

CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT...TO NEAR 8
KNOTS.  A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...ROUGHLY
ALONG THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SHALLOW LAYER BETA AND ADVECTION
MODEL...  BAMS...BUT NOT AS FAST AS SHOWN BY THAT GUIDANCE.

PASCH 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 24.6N 126.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 25.1N 127.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N 131.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     18/0600Z 26.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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