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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 1998
 
GEORGETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SSTS AND
THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER.  GALE
WIND RADII ANALYSIS FROM KGWC USING DMSP IMAGERY IS THE BASIS FOR
DECREASING THE WIND SPEED RADII FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL STEERING.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 23.9N 124.3W    75 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.2N 125.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N 127.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 27.5N 129.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N 130.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     18/1200Z 29.8N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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