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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 1998
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND IT IS BECOMING
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AN EYE ON IR IMAGERY.  WHILE DVORAK CI NUMBERS
AT 06 UTC WERE 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.  THE HURRICANE
CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 500 NM
NW WEST OF GEORGETTE AND THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUATION OF
THE CURRENT HEADING FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKENED AND MORE LIKELY STEERED BY LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS BAMM THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS BAMS FROM 36-72 HOURS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 23.2N 123.6W    85 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 24.4N 125.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N 127.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 27.5N 129.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 28.5N 131.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     18/0600Z 29.5N 135.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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