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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 1998

GEORGETTE IS MOVING OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS...ALREADY OVER 23
DEGREES CELSIUS.  THEREFORE...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  THE EYE
IS DISAPPEARING AND CONVECTION IS DECREASING QUICKLY. HOWEVER... NO
SURPRISE IF CONVECTION TEMPORARILY REDEVELOPS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.  T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT 85 TO 90 KNOTS SINCE DVORAK RULES
DO NOT PERMIT SUCH A FAST WEAKENING.  GEORGETTE IS LIKELY TO BE A
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND PROBABLY WILL BE DECLARED
DISSIPATED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  TRACK MODELS ARE DIVERGENT BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH
MOTIONS EITHER SLOW OR FAST AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...NORTH AND
WEST. THE BEST OPTION IS TO USE BAM-SHALLOW WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING AND ITS PROBABLY APPROPRIATE FOR A RAPID
WEAKENING SYSTEM. 

AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 22.4N 122.5W    85 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 23.7N 124.5W    75 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 25.0N 126.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N 136.0W    DISSIPATING
 
 
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