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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 1998
 
DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 BUT THE CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 OR NEAR 100 KNOTS.  THE WIND SPEED IS
DECREASED TO 95 KNOTS AT 21Z BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND AND COLD
SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GEORGETTE TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/15.  SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE DEEP BAM...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL
P91E...AND THE LBAR...SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER GEORGETTES
EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL
MORE WESTWARD MOTION ALONG WITH SOME DECELERATION...SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

A SHIP REPORT OF 20 KNOTS AT A POSITION ABOUT 80 NMI NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER AT 18Z SUGGESTS THAT THE 34-KNOT WIND SPEED RADIUS OF 175
NMI IS TOO LARGE.  HOWEVER THE SAME SHIP HAD RATHER HIGH SEAS AND
COULD BE BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS.  SO THE RADIUS IS LEFT AT 175
MILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT UNTIL THERE IS ADDITIONAL
CONFIRMATION OF A SMALLER RADIUS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 21.4N 121.8W    95 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 22.8N 124.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 24.6N 125.9W    75 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 25.5N 128.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 26.2N 130.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 26.7N 135.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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