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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGESTS THAT GEORGETTE/S
INTENSITY HAS PEAKED.  ALTHOUGH THE 30 NMI EYE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  THE CONVECTION WEST/SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER HAS ALSO ERODED.  LATEST SST ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT
GEOGRETTE IS NOW OVER 25 DEG C WATERS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 100 KNOTS...PER DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUES THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND NOTED IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.
 
GEORGETTE CONTINUES ON A NORTHWEST HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SPEED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/15 KNOTS.  THE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GEORGETTE MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NORTHWESTERLY COURSE THE
LAST 18 HOURS OR SO.  THE AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  BAM DEEP..LBAR...THE GFDL AND THE
UKMET TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE A NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...ALL AT VARIOUS SPEEDS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 24
HOURS WITH A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWEST/WEST HEADING THEREAFTER AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LOWER LEVEL STEERING TAKES OVER.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 20.4N 120.7W   100 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 21.9N 122.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 23.6N 124.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 24.7N 127.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N 134.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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