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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 1998
 
THE EYE IS QUITE LARGE...30-35 NMI IN DIAMETER AND IS SURROUNDED BY
A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION.  INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS ALMOST NO
VERY DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.  THE WIND SPEED IS AGAIN ESTIMATED
TO BE 100 KT AS IMPLIED BY THE 5.5 TAFB AND SAB T-NUMBERS. GEORGETTE
TOOK A JOG TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  IT HAS COME BACK A LITTLE BUT A SMOOTHED VERSION OF ITS
MOTION SINCE LAST EVENING GIVES A HEADING OF ABOUT 315 DEGREES AT 13
KT.  THE WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII NW OF CENTER HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP KGTI AT 03Z AND 06Z.
 
IT IS HARD TO RECONCILE THE RECENT MOTION WITH FEATURES ANALYZED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OR SHOWN IN THE 00Z AVN INITIALIZATION.  THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...
PERHAPS CLOSED...TO THE NNW OF THE HURRICANE.  IT MIGHT BE RELATED
TO THE VORTEX NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND THE CIRCULATION ON
THE SE SIDE OF IT COULD BE HELPING TO ACCELERATE GEORGETTE ON A MORE
NORTHWARD HEADING.  THIS MIGHT BE TEMPORARY.  OTHERWISE...THE AVN
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE TRACK
MODELS COVER THE HEADINGS FROM W TO NW AND HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW BEND BACK
TOWARD WNW AND GRADUAL DECELERATION.
 
THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 25C SST ISOTHERM TOWARD
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE
SHORTLY.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 19.2N 119.6W   100 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 20.4N 121.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W    85 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 22.7N 124.9W    65 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 23.7N 127.1W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N 131.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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