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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 13 1998
 
AN EYE HAS NOW BECOME EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
THAT GEORGETTE HAS STRENGTHEN.  DMSP 85 GHZ SATELLITE DATA 
SUGGESTED AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE EARLIER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0... RESPECTIVELY WHILE OBJECTIVE-
BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 4.7.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS PUSHED UPWARDS TO 85 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS MAINTAINED WITH GEORGETTE
WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS 23/24 DEG C WATERS.
 
A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION HAS CONTINUED TODAY...AND THE INITIAL 
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
GEORGETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THIS HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 17.1N 117.8W    85 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 17.8N 119.2W    95 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.8N 121.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 19.7N 123.6W    75 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 126.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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