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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 13 1998

GEORGETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC...DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BEAR THIS OUT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS
REMAINING STEADY AT 4.5...75 KNOTS.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 75 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH WEAKENING COMMENCING BEYOND 36
HOURS AS IT APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. 

GEORGETTE SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOST OF
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION WITH THREE NOTABLE OUTLIERS...NOGAPS...GFDL AND THE
AVIATION.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE SPURIOUS VORTEX LOCATED ABOUT 5 DEG SOUTHWEST OF
GEORGETTE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GUINEY

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL     13/1500Z 16.5N 116.9W    75 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.3N 118.5W    80 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.3N 120.8W    85 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 19.2N 123.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W    40 KTS
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