ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 13 1998
 
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED FROM 75 KT.  THE
SYSTEM RETAINS A SMALL CDO THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE PRINCIPAL
CONVECTIVE BAND...APPEARS IN IR IMAGERY IN THE SHAPE OF THE NUMBER
6.  A SEPARATE SHORTER BAND IS NOTED TO THE SE OF THE CENTER.  THE
HEADING IS 295 DEGREES...AT 12 KT.
 
THE 06Z AVN MAINTAINS A TWO-CELLED ANTICYCLONE FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF GEORGETTE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IMPLIES A
TRACK TOWARD THE WNW.  THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM
6 HOURS AGO AND ALONG THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT
WITHOUT AS MUCH ACCELERATION AS SHOWN BY THE BAM OUTPUT.
 
IF THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY CORRECT...THEN THERE IS ANOTHER
36 HOURS OR SO AVAILABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 15.9N 116.2W    75 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.7N 117.8W    80 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.8N 120.3W    85 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 20.1N 125.9W    70 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 22.0N 131.0W    40 KTS
  
NNNN