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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 12 1998

GEORGETTE CONTINUES AS A BANDING TYPE HURRICANE WITH AN EXCELLENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS NOT OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES YET
BUT T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE.  THE WINDS ARE THEN ADJUSTED TO 75 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER.

INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.   MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD.
THEREFORE...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  TRACK MODELS...INCLUDING THE LATEST GFDL SUGGEST A GRADUAL
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 15.5N 115.1W    75 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 116.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 120.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N 122.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N 127.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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