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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 12 1998
 
GEORGETTE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH A WELL-
DEFINED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM.  THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE NOW 4.0...65 KNOTS...
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS.  THIS MAKES
GEORGETTE THE 4TH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGH 
24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS 23/24C WATERS.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME (SHIPS). 

A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 180NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SSE
WIND OF 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 15 FT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE WIND AND 12-FOOT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED.
 
SATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT GEORGETTE/S FORWARD
MOTION HAS INCREASED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/
10 KNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 460NM NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...AS FORECAST BY THE AVIATION
MODEL.  THIS SHOULD KEEP GEORGETTE ON A MORE NW TRACK HEADING.  
MOST OF THE 12Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST
MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAM DEEP AND NHC91.  THIS
REPRESENTS A SLIGHT LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 14.2N 112.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.3N 114.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 115.7W    85 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 119.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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