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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT TD EIGHT-E HAS CONTINUED
TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY.  THE SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE BANDING
FEATURES AND THE CENTER IS UNDER AN EXPANDING CDO.  THUS... TD
EIGHT-E IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WITH THE
INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 40 KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE REMAINS HINDERED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...IN LINE WITH DVORAK
DEVELOPMENT CURVES.

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT GEORGETTE NOW HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/
7 KNOTS.  PREDICTING THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF GEORGETTE MAY BE WEAKENED
BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A NORTHWEST
TO NORTH MOVEMENT BUT THIS IS PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SPURIOUS
VORTEX INITIALIZED ABOUT 7 DEG WEST OF GEORGETTE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST MOTION BY
72 HOURS.  THIS IS MIDWAY BETWEEN BAM DEEP AND LBAR...AND IS ON
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 12.6N 111.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 13.3N 112.1W    50 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.2N 113.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.3N 115.2W    70 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 117.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 121.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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