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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 1998
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AND IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  A BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THIS
TIME.  HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS
ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION.  THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED
IN THE NW QUADRANT...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 10 DEG NORTH OF
TD 8-E...AND GOOD ELSEWHERE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO ATTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STATUS LATER TODAY.  A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND IS FORECAST
...IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9 KNOTS.  THE AVIATION MODEL
MAINTAINS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD SUGGESTING A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE 12Z
TRACK GUIDANCE MODEL SUITE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST HEADING...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 12.3N 110.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.8N 111.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.7N 113.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 14.5N 115.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W    60 KTS
 
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