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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 1998
 
AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE DISTURBANCE FAR TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SOME THIN
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOTED AS WELL...MAINLY TO THE W-WNW OF THE
CENTER.  TAFB AND SAB GIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0+ AND
2.5...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WITH 30 KT WINDS.  POSITION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
JUMPING AROUND A BIT AND SOME ADJUSTMENT TO INITIAL MOTION...300/9
KT...AND TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN VISIBLE PICTURES BECOME
AVAILABLE LATER.  

THE 00Z AVN SHOWS A LARGE AND STRONG ANTICYCLONE PERSISTING TO THE
NORTH OF THE TD THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WNW
FORECAST TRACK...AS INDICATED BY THE AVN-BASED GUIDANCE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THOSE TRACKS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE BAMM
AND CLIPER.

FUTURE INTENSITY OF SYSTEM POTENTIALLY GOVERNED BY SEVERAL FACTORS. 
CURRENTLY...THE TD SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR...WITH BAM GUIDANCE IMPLYING STRONG NW SHEAR BY THE END OF THE
3-DAY PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES.  AVN FORECASTS
INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE COULD EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT CLOSE TO THE RATE
INDICATED BY SHIFOR.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 11.8N 109.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 12.5N 111.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 13.3N 112.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 14.1N 114.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 14.9N 115.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 118.5W    60 KTS
 
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