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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 09 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITHOUT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER IS WELL
DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED
THAT THE CENTER IS NOT THAT IMPORTANT.  RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN.
 
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 25 KNOTS.  MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY OVER COOL WATER...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED AS A DEPRESSION FOR A
WHILE LONGER.  ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CEASE SOMETIME TONIGHT
AND FRANK WILL BE CARRIED AS A WEAK LOW ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. 
THE NAVY NOGAPS LOOSES THE CIRCULATION COMPLETELY WITHIN 36 HOURS
WHILE THE GFDL DISSIPATES IT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10.   ALL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS
SHOW EITHER A NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION...WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.  OUR TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-
LEVEL BAM GUIDANCE.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW...THE ACTUAL TRACK COULD BE EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 28.3N 116.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 29.3N 117.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     10/1800Z 30.3N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N 120.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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