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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 09 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT MUCH
DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED...AND IN FACT...THE SATELLITE FIXES HAVE JUMPED ABOUT 100
MILES TO THE WEST BETWEEN 0900Z AND 1200Z.  THEREFORE...THE CENTER
IS RELOCATED ON THIS ADVISORY AND THE TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE
LEFT.  LUCKILY...THE CENTER IS NOT THAT IMPORTANT SINCE FRANK IS A
WEAK SYSTEM.  RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
 
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS.  MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY OVER COOL WATER...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE DISCONTINUED EARLIER
...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED AS A DEPRESSION FOR A
WHILE LONGER.  WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CEASE
AND FRAN WILL BE CARRIED AS A LOW ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.  IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GFDL DISSIPATES FRANK WITHIN ABOUT 18 HOURS.
 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE NIGHTTIME CENTER FIXES...BUT
BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/11.  IT LOOKS LIKE FRANK IS
FINALLY DOING WHAT MOST OF THE MODELS PREDICTED...TURNING AWAY FROM
LAND.  AS STATED EARLIER...THE CURRENT TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-
LEVEL BAM GUIDANCE.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW...THE ACTUAL TRACK COULD BE EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF BAJA AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 27.4N 115.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 28.6N 117.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     10/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N 121.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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