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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 09 1998

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
FRANK IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH BAJA...AND FRANK IS FORECAST
TO BE DISSIPATING IN 24-36 HOURS ALTHOUGH IT COULD DO SO EVEN SOONER
THAN THAT.

MOTION ESTIMATE IS NNW...340/10.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY
MAINTAINS THIS MOTION FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ON THIS COURSE...THE
REMNANTS OF FRANK WOULD BE NEAR THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST IN 36
HOURS OR SO.  THIS IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF OUR OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
TRACKS...WHICH HAVE BEEN OF LITTLE USE FOR FRANK.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF BAJA TODAY...AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER PARTS OF ADJACENT
MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. 

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 26.9N 113.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 28.4N 114.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     10/0600Z 30.5N 114.7W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     10/1800Z 32.5N 115.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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