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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 08 1998
 
FRANK APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION TO ABOUT 13 KNOTS
SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/13.  THIS SHOULD BRING THE STORM INLAND
OVER BAJA IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IGNORES
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AS FRANK HAS BEEN DOING... AND MOVES THE SYSTEM
RIGHT UP THE BAJA GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT AND DISSIPATING IT IN 36
HOURS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST..
 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AT
LANDFALL.
 
THE 200 MB WIND PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM
FRANK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 26.2N 113.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 28.1N 114.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     10/0000Z 30.5N 114.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     10/1200Z 33.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING

 
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