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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 1998

SATELLITE...SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
FRANK IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 11 KNOTS.  FRANK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 
MAY REACH A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE
... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO
PUNTA ABREOJOS.  SINCE THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO
BAJA CALIFORNIA...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA.  

A WEAKNESS OF THE 500 MB HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANK IS CAUSING
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. BECAUSE THE MODELS BUILD THE
RIDGE ONCE AGAIN IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST.  THIS NORTHWEST TRACK IS REFLECTED IN MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS.

THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP AND CIRCULAR CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.5 FROM
BOTH TSAF AND SAB.  WINDS ARE KEPT AT 35 KNOTS BUT FRANK COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE REACHING COOL WATERS IN 24 HOURS. 
 
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD INDUCE FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 23.1N 112.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 24.7N 112.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 26.0N 113.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     10/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     11/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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