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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 1998

THE SYSTEM HAS SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTING KEEPING THE
SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION.
 
IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER WITH IR IMAGERY...BUT THERE
IS SOME INDICATION THAT IT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER
ESTIMATES...GIVING A MOTION JUST WEST OF DUE NORTHWARD.  FIRST
VISIBLE PICTURES ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE.  SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
TRACK WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.
 
THE 06Z AVN SPLITS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE INITIALIZED TO THE
NW...LEAVING HIGH CENTERS WNW AND NE BY 48 HOURS.  THAT MODEL
FORECASTS A NW MOTION FOR THE DEPRESSION...BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS AND
THE DEPENDENT TRACK MODELS GENERALLY DO AS WELL.  THE NOGAPS...ON
THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK.  GIVEN THAT
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
 
IF THE NORTHWARD MOTION IS CORRECT AND PERSISTS...AND THERE IS ANY
INDICATION OF FUTURE STRENGTHENING...THEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR
WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 20.1N 111.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N 112.7W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.9N 113.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 25.3N 114.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 28.0N 117.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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