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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 06 1998
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN-E LOOKS RAGGED...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. 
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH TAFB AND
AFGWC ESTIMATES.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED...
AND ON LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES APPEARED ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AXIS.  THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 28
TO 29 DEG C WATER...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN
QUADRANTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATER...AND OUR INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS THAN INDICATED
BY SHIFOR AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL
DISSIPATES THE TD WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/09.  NWS AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS A
MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....BUT THIS IS WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR TROPICAL SYSTEM AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
WEAKNESS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TD.  MOST TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHILE CLIPER IS MORE WESTWARD AND
THE NAVY NOGAPS IS MORE NORTHWARD.  FOR NOW...OUR TRACK ASSUMES THE
CURRENT STEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 18.3N 112.1W    25 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N 112.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.7N 113.8W    30 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.8N 115.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 22.6N 116.2W    30 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N 118.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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