ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 05 1998

ESTELLE CONTINUES AS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAYERED
CLOUDS...AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW DOWN TO 30 KNOTS...SO THE CYCLONE
IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A CONTINUED SPINDOWN IS
EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...OR SOONER.

ESTELLE TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND ITS MOTION IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE...IN ACCORD WITH STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 19.5N 133.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.9N 135.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 20.5N 138.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 21.0N 140.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED 
 
NNNN