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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 05 1998
 
ESTELLE CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 AND 2.5.  SINCE
ESTELLE WAS A STRONG SYSTEM THERE ARE PROBABLY A FEW REMAINING AREAS
WITH 35 KNOTS.  ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TODAY AND MAY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.
SHIFOR..SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ALSO WEAKEN ESTELLE VERY FAST.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  SINCE ESTELLE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK OVER COOL WATERS...STEERED
BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 19.0N 132.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.1N 133.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.3N 136.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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