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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 1998

ESTELLE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION CONSIDERABLY IN COMPARISON TO
LAST NIGHT.  CURRENT ESTIMATE IS SET AT 12 KNOTS...AND AFTER JOGGING
A LITTLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE SLOWER
INITIAL MOTION...BUT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWS A LARGE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND...OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CYCLONE.  CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB AGREE AT 55 KNOTS.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO
COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED.

PASCH  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 18.5N 129.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N 131.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.7N 133.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 136.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 19.3N 139.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N 144.0W    30 KTS
 
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