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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 1998
 
ESTELLE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE
FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 60 KNOTS...AND ESTELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AS ESTELLE MOVES OVER 24/25C WATERS. 
 
SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUGGEST THAT ESTELLE IS MOVING A BIT SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 265/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CONTINUES A
GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NORTH OF ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  LIKE THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AND CLIPER.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 18.4N 128.6W    60 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 18.5N 130.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.6N 133.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 18.8N 136.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 19.5N 145.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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