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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 03 1998
 
WEAKENING HAS CONTINUED AS ESTELLE MOVES OVER 24 TO 25 DEG C WATER. 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 70 KNOTS.  ESTELLE SHOULD BE ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE 24 DEG C
ISOTHERM IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/14...AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND
CURRENT TRACK HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  NWS AVIATION
MODEL MAINTAINS A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE 
...SO THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT
TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 18.9N 127.4W    70 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.0N 129.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.2N 132.6W    55 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N 135.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 19.8N 138.4W    35 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N 144.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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