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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 03 1998

THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF ESTELLE...AND THE HURRICANE HAS NOW
CROSSED THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM.  IN A DAY OR TWO ESTELLE SHOULD
BE ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE SST ISOTHERMS...BUT BE OVER 23-24 DEG C
WATERS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING
TO A DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS ENTAILS SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE
NHC FORECAST.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A 500
MB HIGH BUILDING BETWEEN 20N-30N AND 125W-145W IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD DISCOURAGE ESTELLE FROM TURNING MUCH TO THE RIGHT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE OBJECTIVE TRACKS WHICH...SO FAR THIS SEASON...HAVE SHOWN A
NORTHWARD BIAS ON AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SSM/I ESTIMATES FROM THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL
WEATHER CENTER.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 19.3N 125.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.8N 127.7W    70 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.3N 130.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.8N 133.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.3N 135.7W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 141.0W    30 KTS
 
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