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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 03 1998

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ESTELLE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.  MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS 80 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.  MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGEST
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD.  THE HURRICANE IS NEARING 25 DEG C
SST/S...AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WATERS SHOULD COOL TO
NEAR 23 DEG C.  IF ESTELLE MOVES MORE NORTHWESTWARD...IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.

MOTION REMAINS 290/12.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN FROM 06Z SHOWS A
500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH 25N135W...AND
BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE LATTER LOCATION FROM 48-72 HRS.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.  THE MOST RECENT GFDL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE OFFICIAL...BUT IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER. 

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 19.1N 124.1W    80 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 19.7N 126.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 128.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 21.0N 131.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N 133.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 22.0N 139.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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