ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 03 1998 ESTELLE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED...AND CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS DECREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN. THE OUTFLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM IS UNIMPRESSIVE AND RECENT SST ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT ESTELLE IS CROSSING INTO 25/26C WATERS. THIS ALL POINTS TO CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT THIS TREND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCE TO 90 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME - SHIPS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12 KNOTS. A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A MORE WESTERLY HEADING THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THE GFDL GUIDANCE. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 18.8N 122.8W 90 KTS 12HR VT 03/1800Z 19.4N 124.6W 80 KTS 24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.1N 127.0W 70 KTS 36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 129.4W 60 KTS 48HR VT 05/0600Z 21.2N 132.0W 50 KTS 72HR VT 06/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W 35 KTS NNNN