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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 02 1998
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED AND
THE SYSTEM IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS 12 HOURS AGO.  INITIAL INTENSITY
IS LOWERED TO 95 KNOTS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
SAB...TAFB...AND KGWC.  COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF ESTELLE WILL ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE. 
CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
A BLEND OF THE DIFFERENT TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 18.3N 121.7W    95 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.9N 123.6W    85 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N 126.1W    75 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 128.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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