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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 02 1998
 
ESTELLE HAS BEEN WEAKENING TODAY.  THE EYE IS NO LONGER
APPARENT...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN EXTENT AND BECOME
RATHER  DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED.  COOLER
WATERS  LIE AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE SO A CONTINUED DECREASE IN
INTENSITY IS LIKELY...AND IS FORECAST.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO
REFLECT THE LATEST TREND.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ESTELLE
SHOULD BE OVER 23-23 DEG C WATERS...AND BE EVEN WEAKER THAN
INDICATED HERE.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF
ESTELLE.  THEREFORE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
MOTION AT AROUND THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED...12 KNOTS...IS FORECAST.
THIS IS ROUGHLY THE AVERAGE OF THE TRACKS GIVEN BY OUR OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE MODELS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 17.8N 120.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.4N 122.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.0N 124.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 19.7N 127.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 129.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.5N 134.5W    55 KTS
 
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