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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 02 1998
 
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED.  THE
EYE HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND THERE IS AN
EROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS A SHORTER-TERM
FLUCTUATION OR THE BEGINNING OF A LONG-TERM WEAKENING TREND.
ESTELLE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 27 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...SO FURTHER
WEAKENING SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.  HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...
THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A RELATIVELY SLOW DECAY.  LATE
IN THE PERIOD...SEA TEMPS COULD BE NEAR 24 DEG C SO ESTELLE MIGHT BE
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN SHOWN HERE.
 
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.
CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11 AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE DEVIATION FROM THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 17.3N 119.2W   115 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 17.8N 121.1W   110 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.3N 123.5W   105 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.8N 126.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 19.3N 128.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W    65 KTS
 
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