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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 02 1998

...CORRECTION FOR INTENSITY FORECAST...
 
ESTELLE IS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE WITH A VERY SYMMETRIC CLOUD
PATTERN...A WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI EYE AND A SECONDARY BANDING
FEATURE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS
HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 6.0..115 KNOTS...HE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO 6.0.  THEREFORE
...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS TO 115 KNOTS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE SHOWING
SOME WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN
RIDGE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY
CLUSTERED AROUND THIS THEME...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL MODEL NHC91.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 16.8N 118.1W   115 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 17.2N 119.9W   115 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 17.7N 122.6W   110 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.2N 125.6W   100 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.5N 128.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 19.0N 134.9W    75 KTS
 
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