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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 1998
 
ESTELLE RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A RING OF INTENSE
CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM IS QUITE LARGE...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY OTHER
AREA WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -50C ARE IN A SPIRAL BAND
TO THE SE.  WIND RADII ARE ALSO KEPT LARGE...AND SOMEWHAT BIGGER
THAN ESTIMATED FROM SSM/I DATA.
 
INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED TO 280/13 KT...BUT THE INCREASED
NORTHWARD COMPONENT COULD BE ONLY A WOBBLE AS THE AVN FORECASTS THAT
A STRONG ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ESTELLE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST.  THE NHC TRACK REPRESENTS
AN EXTENSION OF THE FORECAST 6 HOURS AGO AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RATHER TIGHTLY PACKED TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z AVN.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 16.6N 117.0W   100 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 16.9N 119.0W   105 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 17.3N 121.8W   105 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 17.6N 124.4W   105 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 17.7N 127.1W    90 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 133.0W    75 KTS
  
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