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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 1998
...CORRECTED 24 HR LATITUDE TO 16.4N 
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE FORMATION OF A COLD CDO
...WITH -80C TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH 77 KNOTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.  NO EYE FEATURE IS APPARENT AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...DMSP SSM/I IMAGERY RECEIVED FROM THE U.S. NAVY
DMSP SHOWS A DISTINCT EYE-TYPE FEATURE.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
SUBSIDENCE IS NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN EYE...AND IT IS
LIKELY A THIN VAIL OF CIRRUS REMAINS.  THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH
THE SLOWLY IMPROVING OUTFLOW...POINTS TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN
RIDGE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  ALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...A
AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AVIATION AND THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODEL NHC91.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 15.6N 110.2W    80 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 15.9N 112.1W    85 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.4N 114.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.1N 117.2W    95 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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