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HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE UKMET AND
GFDL MODELS.

ESTELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER
COLD AND SYMMETRIC CDO HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THERE ARE NO
APPARENT INHIBITING FACTORS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

LAWRENCE
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 15.1N 108.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 15.2N 109.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.0N 113.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 16.5N 115.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N 119.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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