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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 30 1998
 
ESTELLE HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A STRONG CORE OF CONVECTION
NEAR ITS CENTER AND SEVERAL RAINBANDS CONTAINING CONVECTION OF
MODERATE INTENSITY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5...SO NO CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT IS MADE.  THE FORWARD SPEED
HAS DECREASED A LITTLE...TO 275/8 KT.
 
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS A NARROW E-W ORIENTED ANTICYCLONE TO
THE NORTH OF ESTELLE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND
OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE CONSISTENT WITH THAT PATTERN...INDICATING A
WEST TO WNW MOVEMENT.
 
WITH THE STORM INTENSITY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND WITH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SCHEMES LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS TIME AROUND...A
LITTLE SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 15.1N 107.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 15.5N 109.3W    70 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 16.0N 111.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     02/0000Z 16.4N 113.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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