ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU JUL 30 1998 ESTELLE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ON ALL SIDES OF THE SYSTEM AND THE PRESENTATION ON THE VISIBLE IMAGE IS IMPRESSIVE. THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SO THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE PREDICTED TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BAM AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOTION THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL NHC91 WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL IN THE EAST PACIFIC SO FAR THIS SEASON. DEMARIA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.8N 105.2W 60 KTS 12HR VT 31/0600Z 15.0N 106.9W 65 KTS 24HR VT 31/1800Z 15.3N 109.3W 75 KTS 36HR VT 01/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W 80 KTS 48HR VT 01/1800Z 15.9N 113.9W 85 KTS 72HR VT 02/1800Z 17.0N 118.5W 90 KTS NNNN