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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 30 1998

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ESTELLE HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
REMAIN ABOVE 28 DEG C FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE STORM IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE FAIRLY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME (SHIPS).  
 
THE CURRENT MOTION IS WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVN RUN
INDICATES THAT ESTELLE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ESTELLE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
THIS MOTION IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

 
DEMARIA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 14.8N 104.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.0N 106.3W    55 KTS
24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 15.6N 110.9W    75 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 16.0N 113.4W    80 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 16.8N 118.3W    80 KTS
 
 
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