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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 29 1998
 
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 150 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND IS BEING
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06 AND IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE
THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS OLD.  THE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION CAUSING IT TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
REASONING.
 
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS IS FORECAST.
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CALLS FOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS
BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE WEAKENING AT
PRESENT.  SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE SHIPS
MODEL.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 14.7N 101.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N 103.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.1N 105.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 107.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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