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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 1998
 
DARBY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IN PART DUE TO SLOWLY COOLING WATERS
ALONG THE TRACK AND IN PART TO INCREASING SHEAR.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NOW SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST GREATLY
DISTORTING DARBY/S MOISTURE PATTERN WITH AN ELONGATED PLUME HEADING
NORTHWARD.  DEEP CONVECTION...AS MEASURED BY TOPS LOWER THAN -50C...
IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED
AT 70 KT.  INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/16 KT.
 
DARBY APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GAIN IN NORTHWARD COMPONENT...UNTIL IT WEAKENS TO
THE POINT OF BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL CURRENT IN A DAY OR TWO.
THE NHC TRACK IS PARALLEL TO BAMM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
PARALLEL TO BAMS THEREAFTER.
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW CROSSING 140W AND ENTERING THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PROVIDED BY THE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HAWAII.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0300Z 18.6N 140.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     29/1200Z 19.4N 142.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.9N 144.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     30/1200Z 22.4N 147.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     31/0000Z 23.8N 150.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N 152.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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