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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE NEAR
125 TO 130 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.  BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD SUCH THAT THE MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.

A WELL DEFINED EYE PERSISTS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
NEAR 105 KNOTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 36
HOURS WHEN DARBY ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 15.7N 121.0W   105 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.3N 122.6W   105 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N 125.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 127.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.4N 130.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 135.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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