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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 23 1998
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF TD 5-E IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION AND ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS
CONCENTRATED DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 2.0 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD JUST BELOW STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ANALYSES BY THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE
STUDIES SHOW LOW VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.
THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NOTHING IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL CHANGE THE GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER.
 
GUINEY/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 12.9N 113.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.2N 114.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 13.7N 116.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.3N 118.6W    60 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.7N 120.6W    60 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.7N 125.0W    60 KTS
 
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