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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 23 1998

THE DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA RETAINS A DISTINCT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT
CONCENTRATED...THERE IS ENOUGH BANDING TO ALLOW TAFB AND SAB TO GIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0...AND TO SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MOST PROMINENT
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...REPRESENTING A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY
WHEN A SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WAS EVIDENT.  THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD ABOUT 290/11 KT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST.  THE
00Z AVN IS INITIALIZED...CONTAMINATED...WITH A STRONG MULTI-CENTERED
VORTEX...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WNW OF THE DEPRESSION.  THERE
IS LITTLE IF ANY INDICATION OF THE ACTUAL DISTURBANCE.  WITH NO
CONFIDENCE IN THAT MODEL/S FORECAST...I AM LEFT WITH YESTERDAY/S
NOGAPS OUTPUT WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  

LACKING RELIABLE CURRENT DYNAMICAL MODEL DATA...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...CLIPER AND SHIFOR.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 12.8N 112.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 13.2N 113.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 13.7N 115.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 14.3N 117.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 14.8N 119.7W    50 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W    50 KTS
 
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