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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 1998
 
THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY EASTERLIES AS THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
A WELL-ESTABLISHED EAST-WEST RIDGE ALONG 30 TO 35 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE.  FOLLOWING THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...A MOTION JUST NORTH
OF DUE WESTWARD IS MAINTAINED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

A SMALL AREA OF SPORADIC CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.   BUT
SSTS ARE NEAR 23 DEGREES C AND DISSIPATION SHOULD COMMENCE SOON.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 22.2N 117.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 22.4N 119.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 22.6N 121.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W    20 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W    DISSIPATING
 
 
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