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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 1998

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER SPARSE IN CELIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
CELLS SPORADICALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.  THE CYCLONE IS STILL
FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...AS PER DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE TPC TROPICAL
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE SST/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 22-23 DEG C RANGE
ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM.  CELIA SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

NO CHANGES TO THE MOTION ARE APPARENT AND THE TRACK FORECAST FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS MERELY EXTENDED FARTHER TO THE WEST. 
AGAIN...AS NOTED EARLIER...THE LACK OF REAL DATA AND THE PRESENCE OF
SPURIOUS VORTICES IN THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL MAKES MOST OF OUR
DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT...AT BEST...QUESTIONABLE.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 22.2N 116.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 22.6N 120.4W    25 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 22.8N 122.6W    25 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     22/1800...DISSIPATED  
 
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