ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 1998

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...CELIA STILL HAS A WELL-
ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH SO CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS.  SINCE
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE STORM/S ENVIRONMENT IS LIGHT...WEAKENING WILL
BE SLOW.  NONETHELESS AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CYCLONE/S
PATH ARE IN THE 22-23 DEG C RANGE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  MOTION
CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 9 KNOTS.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS GENERALLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  AS HAS BEEN NOTED
EARLIER...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS LIKELY BEING ADVERSELY
AFFECTED BY A LARGE SPURIOUS VORTEX IN THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL
SITUATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CELIA.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 22.1N 115.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 22.3N 117.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 22.6N 119.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 22.8N 121.3W    25 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED 
 
NNNN