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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/13.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ALL
SHOWS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH
STEERING PROVIDED BY A HIGH ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

A SMALL BAND OF MODERATELY DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS AROUND THE
CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS OR SO OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER
WATER. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

LAWRENCE
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 22.2N 114.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 22.9N 115.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 23.8N 118.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 24.8N 120.4W    25 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 25.8N 122.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     22/0000Z DISSIPATED 
 
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